TL;DR
If the US-Canada trade war escalates, American farmers may cut back on fertilizer due to rising potash costs, which won't show immediately but will reduce yields for years, eventually pushing up food prices.
After trade talks fell apart, the US slapped 50% tariffs on Canadian goods and Canada retaliated. It looks like a spat between politicians, but American farmers may end up paying for this trade war in their fields for years.
Potash: the choke point of US agriculture
Potash wasn't on Canada's retaliation list yet, but it's America's fertilizer lifeline. The US imports over 80% of its potassium from Canada and produces less than 1% globally. If Canada adds an export tax on potash, US fertilizer costs jump immediately.
You can skip a year, but you can't bounce back
Unlike nitrogen, potassium stays in the soil. Cash-strapped farmers can skip an application and draw on the soil's reserve for a while, like running on fumes for a trip or two. But once potassium is depleted, it takes years to rebuild. Fertilizer and fuel prices already spiked because of the war in Iran, so US farmers are extra sensitive to price hikes.
Even the threat changes what's planted
Research shows that just the uncertainty of tariffs makes farmers buy less fertilizer. Fertilizer is usually bought months ahead, so hesitation in the fall means less on the ground in the spring. When yields drop, food prices rise—long after the tariffs may have been lifted.
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