TL;DR
Despite rapid growth, solar and wind account for only about 3% of U.S. primary energy; to become the dominant source they would need to expand at least twentyfold, while also overcoming grid losses and build-out challenges.
Many believe the U.S. energy mix is charging toward clean power, but the author pours cold water on that: fossil fuels still made up 81% of U.S. primary energy in 2025, with solar and wind together at just 3%.
The truth about 3%
Renewables as a whole are 9% of the total, and roughly 60% of that is biomass (wood, corn ethanol), with hydro picking up some of the rest. Solar and wind are the tail end. Nuclear is about equal to all renewables — three times the size of solar and wind combined.
Electricity that eats itself
The grid is a blunt instrument: 33.5 quadrillion BTUs go in, 13.8 come out — 59% is lost in transmission and balancing. To replace gasoline cars and gas furnaces with electric versions, you'd need to generate more than twice as much electricity to make up for those losses.
20x is just the starting line
If solar and wind are to become the majority source, they'd need at least a twentyfold expansion — and that ignores the battery storage needed for intermittency and the decade-long approval process for interstate transmission lines.
The author isn't arguing against clean energy — just doing the math. Solar and wind have a role, but a dominant one is a long way off.
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