America is too divided to beat China nowHow we can beat China

In 1946, George Kennan, then the top American diplomat in Moscow, sent back a long telegram laying out how to handle the Soviet Union: don't rush into a fight, build up allies and strength, and let the Soviets rot from the inside. The approach was called containment, and it took 45 years to work.

The author says he is no Kennan - he doesn't speak Chinese, has never lived in China - but he still wants to think seriously about how to beat China. Under Biden he argued for reusing the Cold War playbook: pull Europe, Japan and Korea into an economic bloc big enough to outweigh China, backed by military deterrence.

Trump burned the teammates

Then Trump came along. He would rather fight fellow Americans than fight China. He has pushed America's key allies, especially Europe, away and trampled the flags of human rights and democracy the country once carried.

So the Cold War-style alliance strategy can't be executed, the author says. Alliances might be rebuilt in a few decades, but that is exactly the stretch when China's power will be at its peak.

Winning doesn't mean China collapsing

So who is doing the beating, and what counts as winning? The author has changed his answer: it is not about collapsing China or impoverishing the Chinese people.

Because Trump also threatens other countries and locks migrants up, America has lost its standing to lecture China on morality. What actually matters is that countries like Japan, India, Korea and the Philippines are not pushed around by Beijing, and that Ukraine and Poland are not bullied by Russia.

In short: stop China from dominating others.

One line to take away: what usually brings down a hegemon is the mess in its own house.