Candy is expensive now, and greed has nothing to do with itA Supply-Side Story: The Rising Price of Candy

Candy has become absurdly expensive, and blaming greedy sellers is the easy move. But there is a catch: were they not greedy last year? The year before? If prices fall again, do they get praise for rediscovering their conscience?

Chocolate's lifeline runs through West Africa

About 65 percent of the US confectionery industry's ingredient costs sit in three inputs: cocoa, sugar and corn syrup, with cocoa alone near 30 percent. In 2023-24, global cocoa production fell by more than 13 percent while demand dropped only 5 percent.

The trouble was in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, which together normally supply over half the world's crop. Drought first shrank the beans, then 2023 brought the heaviest rain in 20 years, breeding swollen shoot virus and black pod disease. Trees died.

Ghana's harvest that season hit a 23-year low. Shipments sat stuck at the ports.

Then the hedge funds showed up

Cocoa futures existed to hedge risk. At the end of 2023, hedge funds piled in, and by early 2024 they had bought a record $8.7 billion of contracts across London and New York.

Prices first hit $11,000 a tonne, then reached a record $12,565 in December 2024. Between 2000 and late 2022, that number had stayed between $1,000 and $3,500.

Farmers did not cash in right away: contracts were signed 8 to 12 months before the season, when prices were less than half what they later became.

Sugar is just as messy

US sugar was already pricey thanks to import quotas. Mexico supplies nearly half of it, and the drought of 2023-24 cut its output to a 24-year low.

India and Thailand lost crops to El Niño, Brazil's ports were congested and hit by fire, and 51 percent of its sugarcane went into ethanol instead.

Consumers responded honestly: non-seasonal chocolate purchases have fallen since 2022, and some makers simply shrank the package. Prices may come back down, but that will be nature loosening its grip, not anyone's conscience.