On the standard 15-to-64 definition, China's working-age population shrinks by roughly 8.5 million this year alone, and by nearly 50 million over five years - the equivalent of losing Japan's entire workforce.
By the standard definition, the working-age population is everyone aged 15 to 64. The people turning 64 and leaving this year were born in 1962; those turning 15 and joining were born in 2011.
China recorded 24.51 million births in 1962 and only 16 million in 2011. One in, one out: a net loss of about 8.5 million workers this year - more than Hong Kong's entire population.
The next few years only get steeper
The gap widens to 13.09 million next year, 10.81 million in 2028, 7.92 million in 2029 and around 8.99 million in 2030.
Add those up and the workforce loses 49.31 million people in five years, about 5% of everyone currently of working age.
The author offers a yardstick: Japan's entire working-age population is just 73 million. So in roughly seven years, China will shed as many workers as Japan has in total.
House prices follow the people
The author has argued all along that prices track money and liquidity in the short run, land supply in the medium run, and population in the long run.
In smaller cities where the population keeps shrinking, prices are unlikely to return to their old levels. His closing line is a Tang poem: gone, never to return; white clouds drift for a thousand years.
Why it matters
Population is not background noise; it is the foundation every kind of demand stands on. Losing a Japan-sized workforce in five years means pensions, shrinking-city housing and local government budgets all have to be re-divided from one smaller pot - and none of them get to wait for those workers to come back.
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