In the first nine months of 2026, the semiconductor fund SMH returned 75.1% and tech fund VGT 36.7%, while gold fell 4.1% and the S&P 500 managed 13.8%.
The blogger behind Silicon Valley Householder posted two tables and one question: over the first nine months of this year, which indexes did your returns beat, and which beat you?
This year's scorecard
VTI, the whole US market, is up 13.7%. The S&P 500 is up 13.8%, the Nasdaq 100 up 22.5%. The narrower you go, the wilder the number: tech sector fund VGT returned 36.7%, semiconductors SMH 75.1%.
Over the same stretch, international stocks VXUS returned 14.1%, short-term Treasuries VBIL just 2.8%, and gold GLD actually fell 4.1%.
Now stretch it to fifteen years
The long-run ranking doesn't change. SMH averages 30.2% a year, VGT 22.5%, the Nasdaq 100 20.5%.
The S&P 500 averages 15.7%, VTI 15.3%, VXUS drops to 8.4%, and gold sits at 6.0%.
In short: for fifteen years, a bet on US tech, especially chips, has won almost every year.
So the advice to his friends is one line: if you can't beat the broad index, stop picking stocks and just buy index funds.
When a reader in the comments asks what to do with money from selling a house, the answer is three-quarters into equity funds, one quarter into short-term Treasury funds.
Why it matters
In a market where everyone claims to pick winners, an index fund only has to beat one number: your own account. The point of this scorecard is not to tell you what to buy, but to hold up a mirror.
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