Daily Picks
20 picked

Investing, picked daily

Asset prices, valuation, portfolio reasoning, and where financial theory breaks down.

硅谷居士
The Fed hiked rates. Why did stocks rally the next day?Whether the market rises or falls on a rate decision depends on whether the move was already expected, not on whether hiking is good or bad.
硅谷居士
Buffett's problem: nobody wants to get rich slowlyThe recipe for making money in the stock market is dead simple, and most people still fail at it, not because the method is hard but because they cannot stand how slow it is.
Of Dollars And Data
The best portfolio of the past 50 years was 36% your own houseAn optimal portfolio is only the perfect answer to a stretch of history that is already over, so the real optimum is whatever you can hold without switching.
Klement on Investing
Joining NATO comes with a 9% to 15% trade bonusNATO is not just a military alliance; trade between its members grows measurably because of it.
硅谷居士
China's S&P 500 funds are one ten-thousandth of the US marketChina's S&P 500 index funds total about 46 billion yuan, roughly one ten-thousandth of the index's market value, so the claim that Chinese investors are propping up US stocks is nonsense.
Musings on Markets
Stop staring at the Fed. It doesn't set interest rates.Long-term interest rates are set by inflation expectations and real growth, and no Fed chair can change that track.
硅谷居士
He refinanced his house to buy stocks. He calls it cautionThe most important thing in investing is not avoiding risk but calculating how much of it you can still absorb — and what survives the maths stops being a big risk.
硅谷居士
China's state banks are absurdly cheap, and nobody is buyingThe rock-bottom valuation of China's state-owned banks is not a market mistake: they must both make money and bail out the state, so their profits can be given away at any time.
硅谷居士
Selling stocks for a house down payment cost $200,000 in taxesSelling stock funds to finance a home purchase triggers a hefty capital gains tax; using a securities-backed loan instead can save a fortune.
Klement on Investing
Southeast Asia emerges as a haven for US and Chinese investmentAfter US tariffs, both American and Chinese firms cut back on investing in China and rushed into Southeast Asia, boosting the region's economy.
Where’s Your Ed At
Premium: The Hater's Guide To Circular Financing (Part Two)SB Energy's IPO is propped up entirely by circular financing between SoftBank affiliates, with its revenue almost entirely dependent on paper contracts with OpenAI — a company that cannot even afford to pay.
Net Interest
Hot European SummerEuropean equities have quietly outperformed the US, but European retail investors are missing the rally due to structural barriers.
Of Dollars And Data
Which Graduate Degrees Are the Best Investment? (Why I Skipped My MBA)Most MBA programs have a negative return on investment, especially for high earners, and following your interests is the best career investment.
硅谷居士
为什么房贷的期限越长越好？In a stable, mature market, a longer mortgage term is better, because investing the monthly savings in stocks beats the extra interest paid.
Klement on Investing
Story-telling animalsEven when investors learn that an analyst's comment was about a different company, a false story still shifts their view of the original stock, revealing that humans are storytelling animals and that debunking cannot fully erase the damage.
Klement on Investing
The performance decay of LLM trading strategiesLLM trading strategies excel in backtests within their training data window but suffer sharp performance drops out-of-sample, exposing a serious overfitting problem.
硅谷居士
我为什么喜欢先锋集团？Vanguard's unique ownership structure (customers as shareholders) lets it keep fees perpetually low, which is the real reason it beats rivals.
Klement on Investing
Higher deficits cause inflationHigher budget deficits push up inflation faster than most people think, because markets price in the effect in real time — a kind of backdoor default.
Of Dollars And Data
Why I Was Wrong to Be Bearish on U.S. StocksThe author admits his bearish call on U.S. stocks a year ago was wrong, and reflects on overfitting market signals, ignoring data corrections, and forgetting to respect the base rate that stocks tend to rise.
硅谷居士
我的博客如何改变了一个人的命运？A reader in Japan, frightened of stocks, changed his investing fate after reading Silicon Valley Jushi's blog about index investing.

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