A tracker covering 74 technologies finds China leading research output in nearly 90 percent of them — but leading in papers and being able to build the thing are two different races.
Mention the US-China tech rivalry and everyone thinks of AI. The author's point is that there is a long list of other races, and the scoreboard there may be harder to look at.
A run of uncomfortable numbers
In 2024 Chinese investors put nearly $1 trillion into clean energy: renewables, grids and storage.
The result: China makes 70 percent of the world's EVs, 80 to 85 percent of its solar panels, and over 75 percent of its batteries.
Tim Wu of Columbia University puts it plainly. Set AI aside, assume these technologies are the future, and it is clear who is ahead.
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute tracks research capacity across 74 technologies. Its December 2025 data showed China leading in nearly 90 percent of them, including nuclear energy, synthetic biology and small satellites.
At the start of the century it was the other way round: the US held an edge in over 90 percent of the technologies assessed, China in under 5 percent. In 25 years the balance flipped.
Leading in papers is not the same as shipping products
The author pours cold water on his own case: the tracker measures cited research, not deployed technology.
Publishing a theory is one thing. Working out a manufacturing process and actually producing the item is another. Jet engines remain stubbornly out of reach for Chinese engineers.
The report's authors put it this way: if you are good at origami but cannot yet make decent paper, are you really good at origami?
Drones: winning the market, then getting banned
Shenzhen-based DJI holds more than 70 percent of the global consumer drone market. That market was worth about $30.6 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach $55.8 billion by 2030.
Founder Frank Wang started the company in 2006 while studying in Hong Kong, renting an office across the border in Shenzhen. In 2013 came the Phantom 1, under $700, ready to fly, not a toy.
DJI now has over 14,000 employees and no close competitors. US first responders fly them, and both sides in Ukraine rely on them to spot troop movements and direct artillery.
But US tech executives told the author no American company could replicate DJI. The Washington Post reviewed company documents showing four entities owned or administered by Beijing had invested in it.
Behind it sits an entire Chinese drone supply chain, with components cheap enough that nowhere else can match. A Taiwanese manufacturer trying to replace its Chinese engines found an equivalent costing 20 times more.
In December 2025 the FCC blacklisted all new foreign-made drones and components over national security concerns. DJI was not named, but with 80 percent of America's consumer drone market, the implication was clear.
Some scholars argue that debating whether China's innovation came from forced transfers or collaboration is largely irrelevant — what matters is that the breakthroughs happened. Looking at the trend lines, that logic holds.
Why it matters
Treating the AI race as the whole story misses the part actually reshaping industry: in EVs, solar, batteries and drones, China is not the chaser but the side setting prices and supply chains. The gap between leading in papers and being able to mass-produce is where the next decade gets decided.
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