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Economics & PolicyApricitas EconomicsJoseph Politano2026-10-26

Canada's trade with the US falls to a 30-year lowHow Canada is Decoupling From the US

Under Trump's tariffs and annexation threats, Canada's share of trade with the US has sunk to its lowest in more than 30 years, while non-US exports jumped over 40% in a year — though America remains eight times larger than its next partner.

After Trump returned to office and hit Canada with tariffs and talk of annexation, Ottawa made reducing dependence on the US a national goal. The result: Canada's share of trade with the US has fallen to a 30-year low, and non-US exports are up more than 40% in a single year.

What surprised me most is the public response: spending on trips to the US is down 24% from 2024, and spending on other overseas destinations is up exactly 24%.

Still, America remains eight times the size of Canada's second-largest trading partner, so this decoupling is far from a comfortable place.

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