The success of the AI industry relies not just on talent but on historical luck—the coincidence of massive parallel computing and internet data—much like being born on third base.

Many credit AI's rise to genius and hard work, but the author argues that AI was 'born on third base'—its success owes much to historical accident.

1. Luck is part of the game

The author cites himself: born in 1971 to a computer-scientist father, he grew up surrounded by tech. Education was cheap, tech was booming, and he walked into a career. He notes that boomers who bought starter homes and watched them soar think they're Warren Buffett, but the smart ones know they got lucky.

2. AI's perfect timing

Computing shifted from Moore's law to parallel processing, with GPUs doubling in power yearly. Simultaneously, the internet amassed trillions of documents. Together, they enabled 'theory-free inference'—finding correlations without understanding causes. It worked spectacularly, but it has limits: it can predict patterns but fails at the unexpected. An LLM can recite chess rules but can't play legally.

3. Don't mistake luck for permanence

The author warns that AI companies believe 'scale can replace understanding,' but many tasks are better done with conventional programs. Just as post-war suburbs can't fix the 2026 housing crisis, pouring trillions into AI won't solve what it's bad at. Success may be contingent, and the bubble may pop.