The everything theory of mass transit

Public transit has been saddled with side quests: cut emissions, beautify neighborhoods, create union jobs, listen to community residents. Each goal is worthy, but each costs money and adds delay.

The Boston Green Line extension spent an extra $20 million on a 3-kilometer bike and pedestrian path — added after 13 people asked for it at one community meeting.

How transit's to-do list got long

Before the mid-20th century, nearly all transit was private, with one simple goal: maximize ridership and revenue. Then cars arrived, companies struggled, and governments took over in the 1960s.

Here's the problem: taxpayers who don't ride transit had to be persuaded to fund it. So transit hitched itself to the social movements of the era — poverty, civil rights, environmentalism, the oil crisis. Today, the American Public Transit Association calls transit a cure-all.

Federal, state and local governments each pile on demands: federal rules require Buy America and high wages; states add environmental review; locals shape design, public art, local hiring.

Money for side quests is money not spent on the main line

Every dollar spent on rules or meetings is a dollar not spent on more frequent buses or wider coverage. A US electric bus costs nearly twice a diesel one; Miami bought 75, and only about six run daily — charging is tricky and parts are scarce.

California pilots studied by the author did improve mobility for the poor, but added 128,880 net new vehicle miles and slightly increased emissions.

Real emission cuts come from getting people out of cars

Making transit a more reliable choice beats mere electrification. Stockholm research found congestion pricing plus more buses cuts emissions more than electrifying buses.

London's congestion charge cut vehicle emissions by 16% and accidents by 9%. The bigger lever is denser land use, so walking, biking and transit all become easier.

Getting people who otherwise drive to occasionally switch to transit cuts far more emissions than forcing the poor to drive less. Transit should focus on what it does best: moving people from A to B.