TL;DR
The discovery of extraterrestrial microbes could trigger international conflict, as current treaties fail to provide a framework for such a situation, requiring nations to prepare for cooperation, competition, or isolation.
Humanity has been searching for alien life for years, and the most likely discovery is not little green men but microbes. But if they do appear, are the nations of Earth ready?
What happens if microbes are found?
Mars rovers, asteroid missions and probes to the moons of Jupiter and Saturn have all hinted that microbes could exist elsewhere in the solar system. The day we actually find them would not just be a scientific milestone but a geopolitical event.
The only relevant treaty, the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, says nations must explore peacefully and no country can claim a celestial body. It says nothing about who gets to use alien bacteria, or who is responsible when something goes wrong.
Cooperation or a grab for power?
The Cold War space race pushed nations into rivalry and military build-up. Yet faced with asteroid threats and shared problems on the International Space Station, the same nations have worked together.
Researchers sketch three possible outcomes: one like the space station, with shared data; another like the space race, with countries grabbing samples for economic or military gain, even weapons; and another where fear of contamination makes nations isolate themselves.
Private companies complicate things further: SpaceX's Starlink already operates about 60 percent of all satellites and can pick and choose who gets access. On Earth a treaty forbids patenting a naturally occurring microbe; in space, no such rule exists.
What can be done now?
No one knows whether we will get peace or a new Cold War. Instead of betting on a single future, researchers suggest running scenario exercises, the way the military does, so that when alien microbes are found, Earth will not be caught off guard.
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