Trump's second term is failing on its own termsThe second Trump presidency is a world-historic failure

Trump's second term has already failed in the court of public opinion: approval at historic lows, his base eroding, even as Democrats remain in disarray.

The author wrote a 'Trump is bad' piece back in May. This time he wants to skip the outrage and ask a narrower question: why, exactly, is the second term going so badly?

Even his own side is peeling off

Heading into the midterms his approval sits at historic lows. In the first term Americans were mildly disapproving; now only the hardcore base is still loyal, and that base is shrinking.

Cost of living is the sharpest signal — the defining issue of 2024, and Republicans themselves now give him poor marks on it. A growing, if modest, number of 2024 Trump voters are saying they never voted for him at all.

Republicans increasingly say they support the party rather than the man. Markets agree: prediction platforms see the House as all but gone for the GOP and give Democrats better-than-even odds on the Senate, despite a brutal map.

Throwing money at it isn't working

He has resorted to promising $5,000 cheques to every American if Republicans win the midterms. The bribe is not landing — it is actively driving voters away.

The irony is that Democrats are busy tearing themselves apart over Israel and Palestine, and the public remains sceptical of 'woke' progressive ideology. Yet where Republicans were more trusted on many issues a year ago, voters now lean Democratic on the economy and immigration.

Even close allies are distancing themselves, including Peter Thiel, a godfather of the tech right. The author allows that history might one day judge the term a success — winning the AI race and stalling regulation could swamp everything else.

But 'too early to tell' strikes him as useless. The blunt fact is that it has already failed in the court of public opinion — and it did not have to be this way. Trump simply made avoidable mistakes.