Research finds that populist leaders tend to hurt the economy, and a professional, independent bureaucracy can delay the decline by about four years — long enough to vote them out.
Populist leaders tend to leave the economy in a mess. A 2023 study put a number on it: over 15 years, they cost a country roughly 10% of its GDP.
Who actually runs the government
Anyone who has watched Yes, Minister knows the score: politicians stand at the front, while career civil servants who never rotate out do the work. Populists of the right and the left alike campaign to 'drain the swamp' and purge the 'deep state' — and that is precisely this group.
A bureaucracy pushes the decline back four years
Massimo Morelli and colleagues split a sample of countries that elected populist leaders into two groups, those with high bureaucracy scores and those with low ones.
The score is built on three things: rigorous and impartial administration, merit-based recruitment, and reasonable pay for civil servants. It measures not how big the bureaucracy is but how independent and professional it is.
Result: in countries with a professional and independent bureaucracy, the economic decline arrives about four years later. Eventually it still comes.
The question is whether it holds until the next election
If a populist leader is voted out after one term, a strong civil service can help avoid the worst. If they win a second term, the economy is in danger.
Why it matters
The 'deep state' is the villain of populist folklore, yet this research casts it as a shock absorber. For voters, that makes the real question at the ballot box whether an unglamorous professional bureaucracy would survive a bad government for long enough to matter.
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