Democrats treated Hispanic voters as a racial bloc to be courted with targeted giveaways, and in 2024 a solid majority of Hispanic men went for Trump anyway.
In 2024 Republicans won every swing state and improved on their 2020 numbers in nearly every county. The author wrote a four-part post-mortem after Trump's win; this is one part.
Sorting people into blocs is how you lose them
Democrats habitually call racial groups communities and then hand out benefits aimed squarely at them. The Biden administration ran a policy favouring Hispanic-Serving Institutions, colleges that happen to enrol a lot of Latino students, and another plan nudged small banks to lend more to Hispanic borrowers.
But a Puerto Rican voter in Philadelphia has no idea what an HSI is. He just notices he has been labelled and set apart.
One study found that simply using the word Latinx pushed some Hispanic voters toward the Republicans. Not because they are conservative, but because the term declares they are a separate group from other Americans.
Most people want to be ordinary Americans
The author says he would be annoyed if politicians addressed him mainly as a member of the Jewish community. He prefers to be American first, which puts 330 million people on his team; Jewish first shrinks that to 16 million.
Hispanics are much the same. Most are immigrants or their children, and their story is the American Dream: hard work, English, businesses, homeownership, each generation earning more than the last.
Research shows Hispanic incomes converging toward white levels across generations. In 2023 Latino entrepreneurs owned five million businesses, generating over $800 billion a year.
Yet Democrats hand out subsidies while describing them as marginalised. To someone who has just climbed the ladder, that says you will never really make it.
A consolation prize, not a plan
Targeted race-based policies sometimes do help, the author concedes. The problem is that Democrats never seem to intend them as temporary.
When a group is repeatedly told it is marginalised, more of its members ask: if I can do this myself, why should I sign up to be looked after?
2024 gave the answer.
In the end, being treated as someone who needs special help and being trusted to stand on your own are two different things. Voters can tell them apart.
Why it matters
A policy aimed at a particular group can be heard by that group as: you can't manage without us. It is a warning for any party trying to win over immigrant communities: the money may be noticed less than the attitude behind it.
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