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InvestingWhere’s Your Ed AtEd Zitron2026-10-14

AI firms' 'annualized revenue' won't say what period it coversAnnualized Enron Rate

OpenAI's reported $70 billion annualized revenue was revised to $50 billion after the FT found it counted cloud-partner sales differently from Anthropic.

A company that says its annualized revenue is a given figure sounds like it is reporting a full year's income. In practice the number is usually a short slice of time multiplied up: the last 28 days times 13, or a single day times 365.

One number, two methods

In September 2026 OpenAI's annualized revenue was reported at $70 billion. The Financial Times later found the real figure was $50 billion. The gap came down to accounting: on sales made through cloud partners, OpenAI counts only its own cut, while Anthropic books the full amount.

The two firms use two different methods under one label, so comparing their headline figures compares accounting choices. Anthropic's 'run rate' of $48 billion in late May was roughly four times its entire second-quarter revenue of about $10.9 billion.

The real revenue sits elsewhere

In the first half of 2026, actual revenue was about $12.4 billion for OpenAI and $15.5 billion for Anthropic. Those figures can be checked against reporting. The annualized figures cannot be checked at all.

Much of the startup cash flows back to model makers

Take Harvey, a legal AI company. Since December 2025 it has raised about $910 million at a $15.5 billion valuation. Yet by an August estimate its monthly revenue was under $30 million.

It pays OpenAI and Anthropic for the models it runs. Its gross margin reportedly fell from about 50% at the start of the year to minus 50% by June. The more its users engaged, the more it lost.

A number that won't say what period it covers is less a financial statement than an advert.

Why it matters

Much of the money AI startups raise flows straight back to OpenAI and Anthropic as revenue. If valuations rest on that loop, a pause in fundraising would hit the whole chain at its base.

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